As the time-honored tradition in sub-Saharan Africa goes, a nation's second post-conflict general elections often mark its decline back into conflict or authoritarianism. Less than half of the continent's countries have had more than two successive elections uninterrupted by political collapse. Yet, hope that this week's presidential and parliamentary elections in Sierra Leone will break with this trend is not misguided. Saturday's elections promise to trump the marginal standard set by the country's transitional elections in 2002, which drew a line under years of brutal civil war. In fact, their success in the eyes of the politicians and the citizenry may hold the balance between peace and war.
The 2002 elections were held several months after the end of the civil war. Sierra Leoneans widely regarded this election as successful, while experts observed widespread irregularities. According to a recent BBC survey - more than half of respondents in six of the eight sample districts rated the fairness of those elections as "high".
There have been several significant reforms since the 2002 elections. Due to the shifting populations caused by the war, the 2002 parliamentary elections were conducted using a proportional representation system. The votes were tallied in a national constituency like that used in Belgium, Brazil, and South Africa. In contrast, Saturday's election will be run using a constituency-based majoritarian system like that used in the UK and the US. The process of developing these constituencies proved to be highly contentious. This change in system will effectively move political power away from the political parties, and towards local leaders and traditional chiefs. The presidential election will be determined by a run-off if no candidate receives more that 55% of the votes cast.
Sierra Leone's media is vibrant, but not always credible.
Recent political changes in Sierra Leone, including a schism from the ruling party have increased the risk of election-related violence. Various mechanisms have been created to address the risk of electoral violence including the creation of District Monitoring Committees which supervise the parties' adherence to a universal code of conduct and work to resolve disputes.
The National Electoral Commission (NEC), which administers the elections, has been dramatically revamped since the 2002 elections with an entirely new staff. Despite the commission's relatively limited experience, they have prioritized election peace and security and successfully conducted voter registration and candidate nomination. They have broadly inspired confidence among Sierra Leoneans.
Such confidence, however, does not hold with national politicians and political parties - more than half of respondents to the same BBC survey placed little or no trust in national politicians, and almost as many believed political parties offered no real policy choices. Public disillusionment could reduce voter turnout or even decrease trust in the political system as a whole.
In addition, the election is being held at the height of the rainy season, rendering many of Sierra Leone's already inadequate roads impassable. Torrential rain is expected throughout the polling weekend.
Nonetheless, Sierra Leone has much to gain if Saturday's polls are judged, fair and violence-free. The United Nations Peace Building Initiative already allocated 35 million dollars to peace building in Sierra Leone in March, and the retention of international goodwill could allow Sierra Leone to move further toward its potential. However, political progress must continue beyond August 11. Unless the new administration immediately initiates a strong reform program, the population's frustration with bad governance and economic stagnation could once more engulf the country in conflict.