East Timor's new parliament held its inaugural session July 30 as a month-long stalemate over who will lead the next government continued. President Ramos Horta said if rival parties fail to reach an agreement by August 3, he will make a unilateral decision.

Street violence, including clashes between rampaging youths and international troops, has been linked to the political turmoil, and monitors deployed by IFES warn that more unrest may follow.

To form a majority government, a party must win at least 50.01 percent of the popular vote, or 33 of the 65 seats in the parliament. Fretilin won approximately 29 percent of the votes over former President Xanana Gusmao's National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor, or CNRT, which gained approximately 24 percent. CNRT has since formed an alliance with the ASDT-PSD coalition and the Democrat Party, an agreement which gives the post-election coalition a majority in the assembly.

Constitution Unclear

The political stalemate in East Timor comes a year after factional infighting threatened the stability of Asia's newest country. (Photo by: Mauricio Claudio Lopez-Rivera)

However, conflicting interpretations of the country's constitution have both Fretilin and the CNRT-led alliance claiming the right to form the next government and choose the new prime minister, while the country's new president is pushing all sides to establish a government of national unity. Section 106.1 of the Constitution of East Timor offers two possibilities for determining the majority party: either the party with the largest number of votes or the party or alliance of parties that has a parliamentary majority. However, it does not provide guidance about which alternative to apply first.

Mike Clegg, an international parliamentary law expert working for IFES, said Section 85 of the constitution gives the clearest interpretation of how to apply Section 106.1 stating that the president has the power to appoint and swear in the prime minister "designated by the party or alliance of parties with parliamentary majority." Clegg said according to the constitution and legal conventions for solving such ambiguities, the president should first ask the party with the most votes if it has a parliamentary majority. If it does not, and cannot make an alliance to obtain a parliamentary majority, then the president consults with the other parties elected to parliament in order of the votes they received.

But Bernardo Cardoso, IFES program coordinator in East Timor, said Fretilin is unlikely to accept the coalition solution, which would entail handing over power to the CNRT-led alliance and an end to its five-year rule.

Whichever party emerges as the winner faces a host of challenges. Unemployment in East Timor hovers at around 50 percent, and more than 40 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Aid agencies have warned that a fifth of the population is threatened by food shortages after crop failures. In addition, the country is still divided a year after factional fighting between police and army units killed 37 people and led to the resignation of Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri.

Elections Improved

Despite the challenges, Cardoso said East Timor is making progress in the way it runs elections. All citizens had an opportunity to vote in the recent elections, including those who were in hospitals and in jails. East Timor's military played an important role in ensuring security efforts during the vote and most citizens respected the election laws. In the end, roughly 81 percent of East Timor's registered voters cast ballots in the June 30 parliamentary elections.

In order for election reform to continue, the young country needs substantial support from international community. IFES, with funding from the United States Agency for International Development and the U.S. Department of State, is playing a significant role in strengthening East Timor's electoral system and increasing the political participation of its citizens.

IFES has provided training and advice to East Timor's National Election Commission and provides information about the electoral system to interested groups such as community leaders, media, students, and political parties. With the 2007 elections over, IFES is now analyzing the administration of the recent polls and will provide election commissioners with recommendations about how to improve future elections. In addition, IFES expects to assist the commission in its preparations for local polls tentatively scheduled for late 2008-2009.

Ultimately, Cardoso said he hopes that the new parliament members will put their political differences aside and serve the interests of East Timor's citizens. In turn, citizens should be ready to accept the results peacefully.

"I only hope that every decision the government makes will consider the people's sake, because they are the representatives of people," he said.