A preference for male children is causing a crisis that could threaten India's human rights, security and, ultimately, democracy.

A steep decline in the number of girls (as compared to boys) in the Indian population highlights a deepening crisis in that country. This disturbing trend-which is being blamed on sex-selective abortions, the practice of killing infant girls and the neglect of female children-is being ignored by the majority of Indian citizens. It has larger implications for the future of India and its democracy.

Status of Women in India

India is the world's largest democracy and was one of the first countries to grant women the right to vote (in 1928). The Indian Constitution is firmly grounded in the principles of liberty, fraternity, equality and justice. Its preamble promises to all of its people social, economic and political justice as well as liberty of thought, expression, belief, faith and worship. It affirms (in sections 14 and 15) equality before the law and prohibits discrimination on the grounds of religion, race, caste, sex or place of birth. India is also a land where ancient scriptures revere women as living symbols of the mother goddess. Yet paradoxically, these same traditions deny women many basic rights, such as the right to perform the final rites of their parents. In spite of the rapid modernization experienced by some segments of Indian society, general social attitudes towards women have not kept pace with the country's economic and political development.

Missing Girls:
The Makings of a Crisis

A country's sex ratio (i.e., the number of girls per 1,000 boys in the zero-to-six age group) can reveal that country's social attitude towards its girl-children. Under natural circumstances, slightly more boys than girls are born each year, but in India, this ratio has been declining precipitously over the second half of the twentieth century (see Graph below).

However, these nationwide numbers hide an even steeper decline in northwest India. In northwestern states like Punjab and Haryana, the child sex ratio has fallen below 900. In the capital, Delhi, the ratio is as low as 868, while it is only 770 in one district in Haryana state.2 Even though sex ratio at birth favors males, higher female longevity usually results in overall populations with an average 1,050 women per 1,000 men.3 However, according to the 2001 census, men outnumber women in India (934 women per 1,000 men).4

Analysis of data from India's 2001 census reveals that between 22 and 37 million females are missing from its population.5 Some argue that natural population trends are causing this shift, but demographic factors alone cannot explain the disparities in the numbers. It is widely acknowledged that this skewed sex ratio is a result of sex-selective abortions (female feticide), the practice of killing infant girls (female infanticide) and neglect of the girl-child (resulting in increased mortality rates for girls). The steep decline of the sex ratio in many parts of India is evidence of a deepening crisis.

Gender as a Choice

For thousands of years a deeply internationalized preference for sons has existed among Indian parents, and it cuts across religious/caste divisions, economic segments, rural/urban divides and education levels. This preference for sons has evolved from a variety of economic, sociological and religious factors. It is widely believed that sons will provide economic support for parents in old age, carry the "good name" of the family forward and add status to the family. A woman's status in her family is often tied to the number of sons she bears: "May you be the mother of a hundred sons" is a common blessing given to a woman.

In contrast, a daughter is seen as an economic liability due to the expense of her dowry and wedding. Though the practice of dowry is officially prohibited by a 1961 law, it continues nevertheless. Over the last two to three decades, the value of dowries has increased sharply, and the practice has crept into communities where traditionally dowry was not practiced. It is not uncommon for families to use their entire life savings or go into terrible debt to pay for daughters' marriages. A daughter is also seen as a social liability since she needs to be protected and married off into a family of equal or higher social status, in whose house she will live. According to one idiom, raising a girl-child is like "watering another man's garden."

To make matters more complicated, the Indian government mounted a massive campaign in the 1970s and 1980s-"Hum do, hamare do" (We are two, and we have two)-aimed at reducing family size and controlling population growth. In some states where this two-child policy was implemented, people with more than two children were automatically disqualified from political office at the level of grassroots governance. Given the resulting shift in family size, families have a tremendous desire that at least one of their two children be male.

In the context of these social and governmental pressures, modern technology-amniocentesis and ultrasound-has arrived that can easily identify the sex of a fetus within the first few months of pregnancy. The ease with which sex determination can now be performed has contributed to an increase in sex-selective abortions in India. The traditional approach to sex selection-the neglect of girl-children with respect to nutrition, health care, education, opportunities, love and care-has now been replaced by simpler, more accessible and more affordable technology that eliminates females before they are born. Some estimate that more than 100,000 abortions of female fetuses occur each year.6

In the 1980s, when mobile ultrasound units first became available in rural Haryana, they advertised their services by saying: "Spend 500 rupees now and save 500,000 later." Five hundred rupees (approximately US$12) on a sex determination test could save a family 500,000 rupees (approximately US$11,500) on a daughter's future dowry. With the shift to fewer children and a desperate, continuing desire for at least one son, there is an increased acceptance of the use of sex determination tests to conceive sons, while not exceeding the desired number of children.7

Government Efforts

In an effort to combat sex-selective abortions, the government of India passed legislation in 1996 banning prenatal sex determination through ultrasound. However, due to weak enforcement, this law has done little to change the disturbing trend of missing girls. The biggest barriers to implementation of this law are attitudinal changes that are necessary among all stakeholders: government, law enforcement agencies, political leaders, religious leaders, the medical fraternity and, most importantly, families themselves.

Some state-level governmental schemes have attempted to protect girls, with mixed results. One scheme urges families to hand over unwanted baby girls to local officials, who then facilitate their adoption by childless couples. Under another scheme, the government opens a bank account in a girl's name at her birth, depositing between 15,000 and 22,000 rupees (approximately US$350-500) during her childhood, depending on the number of girls in the family. There is anecdotal evidence that this scheme has saved many a girl-child's life, but these efforts are clearly not enough.

Effects on Democracy

Dr. Amartya Sen, the Nobel Prize-winning economist who raised the alarm of "missing daughters" in the nineties,8 and other scholars hold that sex-selective abortions are not only intrinsically cruel and a reflection of the low value that society places on women, but that the resulting skewed sex ratio impedes the development of democracy and security.

By definition, democracy is government of the people, by the people and for the people. It rests upon fundamental human rights of equal opportunity/treatment and the freedoms to speak, act and believe in a way that allows people to achieve their dreams.Democracy has a simple definition, but very complex demands. Dr. Sen, in his book Development as Freedom, argues thatanythingthat negatively impacts the ability of an individual to enjoy freedom is an "unfreedom,"which can arise from either inadequate processes or inadequate opportunities.Adverse sex ratios reveal the most glaring example of an unfreedom, in which freedom is snatched away from a female fetus, a baby girl or a girl-child. In the case of feticide, the right to life itself is denied to the girl-child even before she is born, rendering all other rights and freedoms irrelevant.

Aside from its threat to democratic principles, India'sskewedsex ratio seems to impact both the treatment of Indian women, in particular, as well as the health of Indian democracy in general.

Violence Against Women

Economic theory of supply and demand leads us to believe that if women are fewer in number than men, this scarcity will enhance their status, as they will be sought after by men who want to marry and have children. However, this does not seem to be the case. A study from Haryana illustrates that the scarcity of women, instead of increasing their value, has led to a manifold increase in violence against them.9

Haryana's extremely low sex ratio (861) has made it very difficult for men to find brides locally. But this has in no way produced a decrease in dowry demands or enhancement of the status of local women. Rather, it has led to the buying, selling and reselling of women; the trafficking, abduction and sexual exploitation of women; marriage at much younger ages; and implementation of harsh measures to keep women under male control. Despite their scarcity, Haryana's women are subjected to more rapes, forced marriages, prostitution, polyandry and social turmoil than in past decades. Men who are unable to find wives locally buy them from other states with the help of "brokers," who are thriving in this new business, or even kidnap them (just in case they are unwilling to marry). Many of these "bought-up wives" have no proper registration of their marriages, and as a result, they have no legal status as wives. This renders them vulnerable to sexual exploitation by their husbands' brothers, male relatives and friends. They are also subjected to social isolation and cultural deprivation as "outsiders." The status and position of men who must resort to buying wives is also devalued, and they do not get full property rights due to the social stigma attached to such marriages.

Although child marriages are officially discouraged through compulsory education for girls, massive awareness campaigns and government laws that make the minimum age of marriage 18 for girls and 21 for boys, the shortage of brides creates pressure to marry girls young. In a low supply/high demand situation, girls get married at an earlier age, thus jeopardizing their opportunities for education and participation in the workforce. In addition, early marriages contribute to earlier sexual experiences, earlier childbirth and higher possibilities of maternal mortality.

Violence in Society

In their bold and controversial book-Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population-Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer assert that low sex ratios can trigger domestic and international violence.10 They project that by 2020 there could be as many as 31 million surplus men aged 15 to 35 living in India. The Chinese term for such men is guang gun-er or "bare branches," referring to the fact that they are not able to find spouses and bear legitimate children. In a society in which women are an increasingly scarce resource, men who are less successful socially and economically are more likely to fail to find spouses and become bare branches.

Sociological research suggests that unmarried men are more likely than married men to spend time with other single men, act more aggressively and choose violent rather than peaceful means to resolve conflict. If these predictions turn out to be true in a world with a large surplus of men, what implications will they have for the already delicate relations between India's different communities-such as Hindus and Muslims in Gujarat, where more than 850 people were killed in intercommunal violence in 2002? As we have seen time and again in India, young, unemployed and frustrated men are easily provoked and manipulated into turning small-scale skirmishes into large-scale communal riots. How will a surplus of bare branches prone to violence affect peace in Kashmir and negotiated settlements of other turbulent conflicts within India? Will more and more points of difference develop into violent conflicts as bare branches join the army? In addition, bare branches provide fertile fields for recruiters for anarchist and terrorist organizations.

Hudson and den Boer also suggest that millions of bare branches could profoundly influence the foreign policy of their countries. Governments will be compelled to find ways to reduce the numbers of these men and limit the violence they may cause. One easy solution will be sending these men to war. Countries will be tempted, say Hudson and den Boer, to get the men "to give their lives in a patriotic cause." What implications will a society prone to violent behavior have on India's peace discussions with Pakistan?

India's declining sex ratio raises difficult questions-about the welfare of India's daughters as well as the security of all its people-that lawmakers, civil society representatives and the citizens of India need to ask themselves. What may be at stake is the very existence of India as a democracy with a proud tradition of unity in diversity.

Dr. Meeta Singh and Vasu Mohan are members of IFES' team in India, which is implementing a Dignity of the Girl-Child program that addresses female feticide and adverse sex ratio. For further information, see www.ifes.org/india.html.

Notes: 1 Sanjay Kumar, "Ratio of girls to boys in India continues to decline," British Medical Journal (Nov. 1, 2003): 1007. 2 Robert Rutherford and TK Roy, National Family Health Survey Bulletin (January 2003). See also Dinesh C. Sharma, "Widespread concern over India's missing girls," The Lancet 362 (Nov. 8, 2003): 1553. 3 Mark Fineman, "Creating a Mosaic of India," Los Angeles Times (Apr. 29, 1991). 4 Kalyani Menon and AK Shiva Kumar, "Women in India, How Free? How Equal?" Report commissioned by the Office of the United Nations Resident Co-coordinator in India (2001). 5 For a discussion of the various factors that impact the accuracy of these numbers, see Stephan Klasen and Claudia Wink, "Missing Women:' Revisiting the Debate," Feminist Economics 9:2-3 (2003): 263-99. 6 Fred Arnold, Sunita Kishor, and TK Roy, "Sex-selective abortions in India," Population and Development Review 28:4 (2002): 759+. 7 Leela Visaria, "The missing girls," Seminar 532 (December 2003). 8 Dr. Sen updates his thoughts about this issue in "Missing women-revisited," British Medical Journal 327 (2003): 1297-98. 9 Manjeet Rathi, "Female Feticide: Haryana's Experience" People's Democracy 29:29 (17 July 2005). 10 For a discussion of different scholarly views of this book, see Felicia R. Lee, "Engineering More Sons Than Daughters: Will It Tip the Scales Toward War?" New York Times (July 3, 2004).

(This article was originally published in democracy at large (vol. 2, no. 1) in 2005.)