In recent months, concerns about the health of Ukrainian democracy and rule of law have been heightened. The trial and conviction of opposition figure and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and the introduction of a draft election law just prior to the country’s parliamentary election, scheduled for next October, has created tension and uncertainty.
On 27 October, IFES held a panel discussion on the current political situation in Ukraine, IFES’ assessment of the new draft election law and the latest IFES public opinion survey in Ukraine.
Speakers included former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, currently the director of the Brookings Institution Arms Control Initiative and a senior fellow in foreign policy; Rakesh Sharma, director of IFES’ F. Clifton White Applied Research Center; and Gavin Weise, deputy director of IFES’ Europe and Asia division.
Sharma began with an overview of public opinion in Ukraine. According to research, there is a higher level of dissatisfaction in Ukraine than last year. This sentiment is due primarily to economic issues, but governing issues also played a part. When asked "Is Ukraine a democracy?" Twenty-one percent of respondents said, “Yes;” 44 percent said “No.”
Forty-two percent of respondents in Ukraine said Tymoshenko’s trial is politically motivated while 32 percent said it is legitimate.
Pifer said Tymoshenko's trial is the worst example of democratic backslides in Ukraine, although it is one example among many. Those in power in Ukraine will have to choose between keeping Tymoshenko in jail or getting closer to the European Union—two mutually exclusive choices. When Yanukovych won the presidency in a free and fair fashion, he gained legitimacy with the West. However, these recent events have diminished that credibility. Pifer underscored the fact that freeing Tymoshenko is not enough. Her full political rights must also be restored.
Weise spoke about the Review and Analysis of the Draft Law on the Election of People's Deputies of Ukraine that IFES presented in September. He said that while the idea to establish a working group on reforming the law should be commended, in reality, the working group could not fulfill its stated mandate given the complexity of issues and insufficient discussion. Should the electoral system go forward, as proposed in the draft law, we could expect a considerably different composition of parliament after the 2012 election.
As for the draft election law, Pifer said Ukraine is only 20 years old, so it is still fine tuning its democracy, but it must settle on an election law soon.