Indonesia has made great democratic strides in the decade since the fall of the Suharto regime in 1999. It has embarked on a parallel path of economic modernization and strengthened democracy and on her recent trip to Asia, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton singled out Indonesia for praise, suggesting it could serve as a role model to other states, particularly in the Muslim world.

With approximately 170 million eligible voters, Indonesia is the world’s third largest democracy and largest Muslim democracy. The U.S. and other international partners played an important role in supporting Indonesia’s democratic development, beginning in 1999 and continuing through the highly regarded 2004 national election period. This support was provided through considerable financial aid and technical and institutional development programs supporting the electoral process and election administration.

Indonesia will test the strength of its electoral democracy when it holds the third national “Reformasi” era legislative elections on April 9, 2009 and its second direct presidential elections in July. Unfortunately, there are grounds for worry.

At first glance, there is much to celebrate. Thirty-eight political parties (and an additional 6 local parties in Aceh) and a remarkable number of candidates will be participating in these elections. Approximately 12,000 candidates will be competing for the 560 seats in the lower house of parliament and 128 seats in the upper house alone. Hundreds of thousands of others will be vying for seats in provincial and district level legislative assemblies. Intense campaigning is underway and political advertising is ubiquitous throughout the country. If a country’s democratic health were based on the number of individuals vying to attain seats, then Indonesia would rank among the world’s highest performers.

But there is no guarantee that the 2009 elections will be a sweeping success. Preparations by the General Elections Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum - KPU) for the legislative elections have been fraught with challenges, and may reflect an underlying fragility to Indonesia’s transitional democratic processes. The KPU is confronted with the difficulties of organizing elections across 535,000 polling stations throughout a vast archipelago. Other challenges, ranging from deficiencies in the voter registry data and budget disbursement and procurement problems to a general lack of voter awareness, could lead to decreased participation and an increase in spoiled or invalid ballot rates.

Research indicates that the voter lists may exclude many eligible voters, who could be denied their right to participate on Election Day. In addition, public information campaigns to promote voter knowledge have been limited, and changes in the ballot marking process have created confusion about how to cast a vote on polling day. There is also a possibility that these elections may not produce peaceful democratic competition and will instead have the opposite outcome. In Aceh, where a tentative peace could be reinforced by successful elections, for example, the upcoming polls may prove to be a catalyst for a return to conflict. If confidence in the elections process is compromised, that risk will increase.

A growing chorus of media and other observers has questioned the ability of the election management body to effectively administer the upcoming elections. If all of these issues manifest themselves on Election Day, it could diminish the integrity of the electoral process among voters and political parties alike.

Although there might still be time before the presidential polls in July for Indonesia’s election administration to remedy many of the operational and other procedural deficiencies it largely inherited, time is running short.

The immediate priority for Indonesia is to ensure a credible and legitimate election event in April. The international community should recognize the need for sustained institutional support and investment. Assistance throughout the entire election cycle - before, during, and after Election Day - is critical to supporting the institutionalization of democratic systems in countries like Indonesia.

It is an investment worth making.