The political situation in Georgia, where protestors are adamantly calling for the resignation of president Saakashvili, is in as much of a deadlock as the city center streets now blocked by the protesters’ sleeping cells. It seems that a solution to this crisis might only be found in the capitulation of one of the sides.
The conflict can be traced back to the August 2008 war between Georgia and Russia in South Ossetia. Since then, Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili has been under intense scrutiny. It would be wrong to disregard Russia’s provocations and solely blame Saakashvili for the war, but becoming engaged was a mistake.
Saakashvili has responded to the increased scrutiny by promising a “second wave” of democratic reforms, even though he has brought concrete, positive change to Georgia throughout the five years he has been in office. These improvements include combating endemic corruption, attracting impressive levels of foreign investment, and fostering an entrepreneurial spirit that has created revenue and jobs. Thanks to these reforms, after 70 years of Soviet domination, some Georgians now have a vision of an alternative future. However, protest leaders claim that the momentum of their ongoing activities will increase until “real” changes take place in the country or the president resigns.
The opposition’s actions at times make it seem as though they are more interested in removing the president from office than in helping Georgia overcome this political crisis. Despite the fact that the state authorities have made several counteroffers, including constitutional reforms and free air-time on public television, the protesters have not softened their stance.
To further show their refusal to work together, on Easter, most of the protest leaders refused to attend the Tuesday evening services in the main cathedral because of Saakashvili’s presence. Only Alasania, the former U.N. ambassador who has taken a more conciliatory approach, appeared in the cathedral. The other opposition leaders prayed in the church next to the main demonstration site across from parliament, while planning to resume their protests later in the evening.
The fact that the opposition is so intent on removing Saakashvili gives grounds for believing the opposition’s main objective might be to take power. Interestingly, since many of the opposition supporters and leaders were previously a part of Saakashvili’s administration, there are no guarantees that in the case of a change of power, the political situation in Georgia would be much different. Further, since the opposition movement is not fully institutionalized, it is possible that the movement will splinter into different factions which would further obfuscate their objective.
On the other hand, the mass demonstrations have further centralized the state’s authority. As Saakashvili has refused to resign, most of the Georgian security resources have had to be mobilized to stand guard against the opposition. At times, the state has been unjustified in its response, such as in the politically motivated detainments of opposition supporters. Despite these incidents, the police have been instructed to not interfere with the protests so long as they remain peaceful.
Since the daily demonstrations began on April 9th, the protesters have gathered in late afternoon at several sites in Tbilisi. On some days, tens of thousands have protested. On others, only small crowds have gathered. It is unclear whether the opposition can muster sufficient numbers to break the stalemate.
In recent days, about 100 protesters have been camping out overnight, sleeping in tents made to look like prison cells. The cells make reference to the claim that the former Soviet republic has become a police state under Saakashvili. 200 of these mock prison cells have been set up to block the streets. There are now many buildings, including the Marriott hotel, that only have pedestrian access.
Earlier in the week, violent scuffles broke out involving demonstrators who remained overnight. One of the demonstrators was hospitalized after being badly beaten, according to television reports, which showed footage of the man with a bloody face.
In a separate incident, demonstrators harassed journalists from several television channels, and one cameraman was punched in the face, the reports said. Protesters accuse the national television channels of failing to provide objective coverage of the protests.
All of these scuffles show that there is no easy solution in sight. Saakashvili declares he will run the country until the end of his term in 2013. Maybe a solution could be for the President to call snap Parliamentary elections after amending the Election Code. This would give confronting sides room to take a step back and save face. Most importantly, however, it would be a relief for the country. Both sides should understand that what they are supposed to be fighting for is the welfare of the country, not simply their own principles.
For images of the cell protests, please visit our photo gallery.
By Chedomir Flego, Chief of Party in Armenia and Acting Chief of Party in Georgia