As Tajikistan prepares for parliamentary and local elections on February 28, 2010, a survey by IFES provides insight into Tajikistanis’ participation in the electoral process, including voter turnout, and the issues of greatest concern to them heading into the election. The purpose of this nationwide poll was to educate citizens, political parties and candidates as well provide IFES with empirical information around which to construct a voter education program. In addition it was part of a larger IFES effort to help political parties prepare professional, targeted messages to voters as part of their outreach campaigns.

Public Opinion in Tajikistan 2010: Findings from an IFES Survey, the third national survey conducted by IFES in Tajikistan, shows that only 32% of respondents are very likely to vote in the upcoming elections; 41% being somewhat likely to do so. Clearly, political involvement has not flourished in Tajikistan despite the fact that 74% of Tajikistanis feel voting gives them the chance to influence decisions in their country. Such modest participation can perhaps be explained by the fact that only 49% of respondents feel they have enough information to make a wise choice in the election, and only 26% feel the election will be completely fair.

Relative disinterest in the coming election could also be attributed to the population’s perception of the state of the country and the political landscape. A majority of Tajikistanis are very (11%) or somewhat (58%) satisfied with the overall situation in the country; while one-third say they are very (5%) or somewhat (25%) dissatisfied. There have undoubtedly been achievements gained since the end of the Civil War in 1997, such as a greater sense of security and order that the dominant People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) claims credit for. People are also generally satisfied with their political freedoms and the state of elections. However, in areas that most directly impact people’s lives – provision of electricity and natural gas, job creation, corruption – a greater degree of dissatisfaction is evident. Moreover, when asked about the government’s respect for human rights and freedom of speech, respondents were split, with about half saying the government always respected these rights, and half saying it only sometimes did.

According to IFES’ poll, overall awareness of the country’s political parties has grown significantly since 2004. Not surprisingly, given the influence and control of President Rahmon and his party in all matters political, economic, and cultural, the PDPT comes in first when it comes to awareness and popularity. Sixty-eight percent of respondents feel that the PDPT best represents their views and interests, up from 41% in 2004. Identification with the Communist Party of Tajikistan (CPT) has waned. In 2004, the CPT was the first runner up with 16% of the respondents saying the party represented their views and interests. In 2010, this number fell to 6%. The same percentage of Tajikistanis (6%) said that the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) best represented their interests and views. This figure was the same in 2004.  Though recognition of the IRPT was quite high as well as general impressions, this did not necessarily translate into the belief that Tajikistan should become an Islamic Republic, with 64% stating that the country should remain a secular state.

The survey revealed that citizens have heard of most political parties, but are not familiar with their platforms and, that being the case, do not identify with any beyond the ruling party. Armed with this data, IFES sought to facilitate communications between political parties and voters by training political party representatives and through three large-scale election fairs in different regions of the country. The party trainings were conducted in Dushanbe and the northern city of Khujand on the subject of messaging and communications. IFES presented the survey results to part representatives, explaining how survey research could be utilized to fashion a message that meets the priorities of citizens. Participants were instructed on how to build issue-based policy platforms based on their ideologies.

In concert with the trainings, IFES organized election fairs in Qurghonteppa, Khujand, and Dushanbe during early and mid February. The purpose of the fairs is to promote contact between political parties and Tajikistani voters in an informal, accessible venue where issues and policy priorities can be discussed. IFES produced banners for each political party and printed 500 copies of their respective policy platforms for distribution at the fair.  In addition, IFES distributed copies of the Tajikistani electoral law and electoral promotional materials, all amid a festive atmosphere featuring traditional music and refreshments. Attendance ranged from about 750 to 1000 citizens at each fair.

IFES’ national survey serves as a rare looking glass into the Tajikistani population ahead of upcoming elections. The results can help political parties, as well as international aid organizations, identify voters’ needs and hopefully create more responsive democratic leaders.