The May 8 mayor and city council elections across Albania captured the world’s attention, first with the news that Socialist Party (SP) leader and incumbent mayor Edi Rama had won by a mere ten votes, and then with the subsequent announcement of the Central Election Commission’s decision to count hundreds of previously disqualified ballots, which would likely to reverse the preliminary results in favor of the Democratic Party (DP) challenger Lulzim Basha. On May 23, Albania’s Central Election Commission (CEC) informed that indeed the inclusion of the previously disqualified ballots (which had been labeled as such as they were placed into the wrong ballot boxes[1]) determined Basha had actually won by a margin of 81 votes. The immediate period following the May 23 announcement will not only determine the course of Albanian politics, but also potentially the stability of this fragile Balkan nation in a region with a recent history of political violence and instability.

How so much of Albania’s future path could be determined by a local election can be understood when one considers that the mayoral election in Tirana is one of the most important electoral races in Albania. In addition to being in charge of the largest city in the country, the mayor also wields significant influence over national affairs and is often mentioned in the same breath as the president or prime minister. The office of mayor has been redefined over the last decade by the incumbent Rama, a colorful, larger-than-life character who has asserted himself in the forefront of Albanian politics. It is suggested that Mr. Basha, a protégé of Prime Minister Sali Berisha, could be in line to ultimately succeed Berisha or President Bamir Topi in top national and DP leadership positions. 

Aside from the inherent weight of the office, these mayoral elections were also largely considered to be either an opportunity for the country to move forward and reconcile lingering animosity between two sides of this very polarized country, or a possible flash point should the election once again go awry, as happened with the 2009 parliamentary elections when the opposition Socialist Party complained of electoral fraud and challenged the results, agreeing later to a tenuous coalition government arrangement.

When the initial announcement was made that Rama had been re-elected by ten votes, there was confusion in the capital due to the incredibly close margin, with both sides declaring victory and sparking demonstrations outside of CEC offices. Those demonstrations took a decidedly pro-Socialist Party feel as it became clear that the disqualified ballots would in fact be counted towards the final results, despite oral instructions given to Ballot Counting Center officials prior to the election that such “crossover” ballots were to be deemed invalid (the election law is not clear on the point).

Candidates and political parties were given 72 hours to file complaints with the CEC, which then forwarded complaints it could not resolve to the Electoral College, a semi-independent body charged with mediating electoral disputes. As of May 29, two complaints had been filed with the College, consisting of challenges regarding the validity of the vote count filed by the Socialists, one of which has already been rejected. The dispute resolution process could conceivably last for some time, though the decision on the mayoral race may come as soon as June 3, the date the Electoral College will decide on the second of the Socialist Party’s vote count grievance. In the meantime, black clouds have gathered over yet another controversial election in the country and many are wondering whether these will result in a full-blown storm.

What’s noteworthy about the recent polls is that the vote count was the most transparent in the country’s history, with each ballot in the Tirana mayoral vote counted and examined on television and on giant screens outside of the CEC building. One might suggest this as an indication that Albania has moved forward in its electoral practices, which the international community must consider a welcome step forward, given its past and current support for electoral development in the country. Any positive steps achieved, however, risk being reversed should partisan interests infringe on the decision-making process of the legal system and the Electoral College, which is presently considering complaints on the vote counting process filed by the Socialist Party.

While politics in Albania are perhaps not always at the center of international attention, the developments in the country offer a microcosm of democratic development in many transitional countries and a valuable lesson for international assistance providers on the need for continuous, targeted support to encourage the adoption of democratic political processes.

There is also another cautionary note. In a region with a history of political violence, the failure to adjudicate the process in a transparent manner and in accordance with the rule of law could lead to the kind of instability that influences neighboring countries in ways that will certainly have more costly and potentially more tragic effects.

The CEC pledged they would work overtime to ensure any conflict was not due to their practices. Indeed, IFES was asked to help their IT department on their results tabulation to ensure the public had as much access as possible to the results per polling station. Further, IFES advised them to improve their communications with the public and with each other, and it can be said that information was readily available to the public and CEC meetings were open and accessible.

The election once again underscores the need for an independent, non-partisan body to quickly and efficiently decide on matters of electoral dispute and issue rulings that correspond to the election law and to international best-practices.

As we await the results of these elections, we are also watching Albania’s political development. The vote has been seen as a referendum of sorts for assessing the country’s democratic progress and an election perceived as poorly run is a possible catalyst for long-term political instability in Albania. The results will also determine Albania’s worthiness for possible inclusion into the European Union.  It is now up to the Electoral College to make its ruling in the case of the Tirana mayoral vote and up to members of both major coalitions to ultimately respect the result, whatever it is, and find common ground to work together for Albania’s future. The country will no doubt still be deeply divided, but if rule of law ultimately prevails this should be a result both sides can be thankful for.

Washington, May 29, 2011