Kyrgyzstan, a country whose post-Soviet transition labeled it the “Island of Democracy” in Central Asia, has seen that distinction erode in recent years amidst two revolutions. The country will hold a presidential election under its newly minted election law on 30 October.
Kyrgyzstan is rife with intrigue and speculation as it prepares for this poll, considering that many doubt the outcome – a first for a presidential election in the Central Asian republic. The path of the country’s parliamentary democracy, a system enshrined in the June 2010 constitution and reaffirmed through parliamentary elections held one year ago that were considered by the international community to be the best in the country’s history, is at stake.
It is expected (and hoped) that for the first time in its 20-year history of independence, Kyrgyzstan will have a president elected through a truly competitive process, with the result representing the will of the people. None of the twenty registered candidates or the forty-plus political parties appears to command the majority of the population’s allegiance, which is symbolic of both political dynamism as well as regional cleavages. As a result, it is almost certain that the election’s outcome will have to be determined by a second round.
It is also unclear how this vote will affect the structure of the government. The constitution established through the 27 June 2010 referendum that formally established Kyrgyzstan as the first parliamentary system in Central Asia greatly limits presidential power and enhances the role of parliament and the prime minister. However, there have been incendiary remarks made by some candidates that, should they be elected, indicate a return to a strong presidency. This is a concern rebuked by current President Rosa Otunbayeva: “The parliamentary system is enshrined in a constitution supported by the voters via referendum. This is irreversible.”
Another genuine concern is that this mountainous country of 5.5 million people, supportive of and supported by the U.S. though heavily influenced by its Central Asian neighbors and its main trading partner - and employment market - the Russian Federation, will slip back into authoritarian rule. Internal political, ethnic and geographic divisions, the re-organizing remnants of the old regime and the pressures exerted by Kyrgyzstan’s neighbors all contribute to a sense of uneasiness in Bishkek and other cities.
Another concern of stakeholders is the fact that the election could deepen divisions between the north and the south. Tension has grown in recent years between the more prosperous north and the poorer, heavily-populated south as both have competed for power and influence. On top of this, the June 2010 ethnic violence between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek communities in the south, allegedly provoked by deposed members of former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s regime, may have been a disaster waiting to happen. Ethnic tension in the south has been high for years as groups compete for increasingly limited land and resources amidst an economic crisis in Central Asia’s most populous region.
The stakes are high for Kyrgyzstan in this presidential election. The country holds together tenuously in the aftermath of the “Tulip Revolution” in 2005 and the equally shocking events of 2010. Its direction, and perhaps the fate of democracy in Central Asia itself, hangs in the balance.
To shed some light into the new laws governing this election, IFES has put together a briefing paper and visual outline of the 13 main changes being introduced, as well as a document of frequently asked questions (FAQs) on the 2011 presidential election in Kyrgyzstan.