International Foundation for Electoral Systems Releases Survey on Ukrainian Political Attitudes
IFES’ 18th survey in the country offers insight into January 2010 Ukrainian elections
KYIV—As Ukraine prepares for the January2010 presidential elections, the newest survey released today by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) finds that a precipitous decline in satisfaction with socio-political conditions and political elites in the country since the Orange Revolution are driving factors in the presidential race. The survey finds that Viktor Yanukovych of the Party of Regions is likely to receive the most votes in the first round January 2010 presidential poll.
The annual survey conducted by the world’s leading election-assistance and democracy promotion NGO showed that 31% of Ukrainians say they will vote for Viktor Yanukovych in the first round of the election and 19% for Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Other candidates with significant percentages include Serhiy Tygypko (4.8%), Arseniy Yatsenyuk (4.7%), Petro Symonenko (3.8%), President Viktor Yushchenko (3.5%), and Volodomyr Lytvyn (2.8%).
Given the likelihood that no candidate is likely to win the presidency outright in the first round, in a possible second round matchup, Yanukovych would top Tymoshenko 42% versus 28% with 18% saying they would vote against both. In a matchup between Yanukovych and Yatsenyuk, Yanukovych would have the support of 42% versus 23% for Yatsenyuk and 22% against both.
The survey also finds that although Yanukovych is viewed negatively by a majority of Ukrainians, his positive rating is the highest of all presidential candidates—a factor in his lead for the presidency. When rating Yanukovych, 55% view him negatively while 42% view him positively. For Tymoshenko, those numbers are 67% and 30%. The data for other leading candidates: Yatsenyuk (56%, 32%), Tygypko (50%, 32%), Lytvyn (60%, 31%), Symonenko (69%, 22%), and Yushchenko (83%, 13%).
Ukrainians continue to have pessimistic assessments of the socio-political situation in the country. Seventy-four percent believe Ukraine is on a path toward instability and more than nine in ten Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the economic (96%) and political situation (92%) in the country. It follows that economic and governance concerns dominate the list of issues Ukrainians would like the winning presidential candidate to address once he or she takes office.
The survey was conducted by IFES’ F. Clifton White Applied Research Center (ARC). The data in this survey is representative of the national population of Ukraine. The national-level data has a margin of error of plus/minus 2.5%. All interviews were conducted in Ukrainian and Russian by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).