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2004 Tracking Survey Results from Wave XIII (June 23, 2004)
Methodology • Waves I, II, IX, and X surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews with 1250 respondents (each wave), selected by multi-stage random sampling of eligible voters throughout each of the 32 provinces of Indonesia. The Wave III survey was conducted in half the sampled locations throughout the country in 16 provinces with 1000 respondents, and the Wave IV survey was conducted in the rest of the sampled locations, in the other 16 provinces, with 1000 respondents. Each of the Waves V to VIII surveys were conducted in 8 different provinces with 1000 respondents in each Wave, for a national total of 4000 respondents covering all provinces. The Wave XI survey was conducted in half the sampled locations throughout the country in 16 provinces with 1000 respondents, and the Wave XII survey was conducted in the rest of the sampled locations, in 15 provinces, with 1000 respondents. The Wave XIII survey was conducted in 31 provinces with 1250 respondents. The province of Maluku was omitted fromthe Wave XII and Wave XIII surveys due to security problems. • The composition of the data in Wave I, Wave II, Waves III and IV combined, Waves V through VIII combined, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI and XII combined, and Wave XIII reflects the rural/urban, men/women and inter-provincial proportions of the Indonesian population. • The margin of error for the national data for each wave in Waves I, II, IX, X, and XIII is +/-2.8% at a 95% confidence level. The margin of error for each of the combined Waves III & IV, and Wave XI & XII data is +/-2.2% at a 95% confidence level. The margin of error for the combined Waves V through VIII data is +/-1.55% at a 95% confidence level. • For Wave I, the face-to-face interviews were conducted between 13 and 18 December 2003. For Wave II, the interviews were conducted between 12 and 15 January 2004. For Wave III, the interviews were conducted between January 26 and February 1. For Wave IV, the interviews were conducted between February 1 and 6. For Wave V, the dates of interviews were February 15-19; for Wave VI, February 21-25; for Wave VII, February 27-March 2; for Wave VIII, March 6-10 (the day before the commencement of the election campaign). For Wave IX, face-to-face interviews were conducted between March 21 and 28, 2004. For Wave X, face-to-face interviews were conducted between April 7 and 14, 2004. For Wave XI, face-to-face interviews were conducted between April 20 and 27. For Wave XII, face-to-face interviews were conducted between May 1 and 8. For Wave XIII, face-to-face interviews were conducted between June 4 and 9. • In this report, any data from the Wave I, Wave II, Waves III-IV, Waves V through VIII surveys, Wave IX, Wave X, Wave XI and XII combined is specifically cited in the charts and text. All other data points are from the Wave XIII survey. Regional breakdowns reflect data from the Wave XIII survey.
June 22, 2004
Publication
Survey
2004 Tracking Survey Results from Wave XIV (June 2004)
Methodology • Waves I, II, IX, and X surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews with 1250 respondents (each wave), selected by multi-stage random sampling of eligible voters throughout each of the 32 provinces of Indonesia. The Wave III survey was conducted in half the sampled locations throughout the country in 16 provinces with 1000 respondents, and the Wave IV survey was conducted in the rest of the sampled locations, in theother 16 provinces, with 1000 respondents. Each of the Waves V to VIII surveys were conducted in 8 different provinces with 1000 respondents in each Wave, for a national total of 4000 respondents covering all provinces. The Wave XI survey was conducted in half the sampled locations throughout the country in 16 provinces with 1000 respondents, and the Wave XII survey was conducted in the rest of the sampled locations, in 15 provinces, with 1000 respondents. The Wave XIII survey was conducted in 31 provinces with 1250 respondents. The province of Maluku was omitted from the Wave XII and Wave XIII surveys due to security problems. The Wave XIV survey was conducted in 32 provinces with 2000 respondents. • The composition of the data in Wave I, Wave II, Waves III and IVcombined, Waves V through VIII combined, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI and XII combined, Wave XIII, and Wave XIV reflects the rural/urban, men/women and inter-provincial proportions of the Indonesian population. • The margin of error for the national data for each wave in Waves I, II, IX, X, and XIII is +/-2.8% at a 95% confidence level. The margin of error for each ofthe combined Waves III/IV, Wave XI/XII, and Wave XIV data is +/-2.2% at a 95% confidence level. The margin of error for the combined Waves V through VIII data is +/-1.55% at a 95% confidence level. • For Wave I, the face-to-face interviews were conducted between 13 and 18 December 2003. For Wave II, the interviews were conducted between 12 and 15 January 2004. For Wave III, the interviews were conducted between January 26 and February 1. For Wave IV, the interviews were conducted between February 1 and 6. For Wave V, the dates of interviews were February 15-19; for Wave VI, February 21-25; for Wave VII, February 27-March 2; for Wave VIII, March 6-10 (the day before the commencement of the election campaign). For Wave IX, face-to-face interviews were conducted between March 21 and 28, 2004. For Wave X, face-to-face interviews were conducted between April 7 and 14, 2004. For Wave XI, face-to-face interviews were conducted between April 20 and 27. For Wave XII, face-to-face interviews were conducted between May 1 and 8. For Wave XIII, face-to-face interviews were conducted between June 4 and 9. For Wave XIV, face-to-face interviews were conducted between June 17 and 26. • In this report, any data from the Wave I, Wave II, Waves III/IV, Waves V through VIII surveys, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI/XII, and Wave XIII is specifically cited in the charts and text. All other data pointsare from Wave XIV survey. Regional breakdowns reflect data fromthe Wave XIV survey.
May 31, 2004
Publication
Survey
2004 Tracking Survey Results from Wave XV (August 2004)
Methodology • This survey was conducted between 7 July and 14 July 2004, using face to face interviews with 1250 respondents in all 32 provinces. • Respondents were selected using multi stage random sampling of eligible voters. The composition of the respondents reflects the rural/urban, men/women and inter-provincial proportions of the Indonesian population • The margin of error for the national data is +/-2.8% at a 95% level of confidence • Data comparisons in the text relate to earlier IFES tracking surveys – Wave I: 13-18 December 2003; 1250 respondents; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave II: 12-15 January 2004; 1250 respondents; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave III/IV: 26 January – 6 February 2004; 2000 respondents; +/- 2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave V/VIII: 15 February – 10 March 2004; 4000 respondents; +/-1.55% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave IX: 21-28 March 2004; 1250 respondents; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave X: 7-14 April 2004; 1250 respondents; +/2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XI/XII: 20 April to 8 May 2004; 2000 respondents; +/-2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XIII: 14 – 9 June 2004; 1250 respondents; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XIV: 17 – 26 June 2004; 2000 respondents; +/- 2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level • In this report, any data from the Wave I, Wave II, Waves III/IV, Waves V through VIII surveys, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI/XII, Wave XIII and Wave XIV is specifically cited in the charts and text. All other data points are from the Wave XV survey. Regional and other breakdowns reflect data from the Wave XV survey.
July 31, 2004
Publication
Survey
2004 Tracking Survey Results from Wave XVI (August 2004)
Survey Implementation • This survey was conducted between 7 August and 14 August 2004, using face to face interviews with 1250 respondents in all 32 provinces. • Respondents were selected using multi stage random sampling of eligible voters. The composition of the respondents reflects the rural/urban, men/women and inter-provincial proportions of the Indonesian population. • The margin of error for the national data is +/-2.8% at a 95% level of confidence. • Data comparisons in the text relate to earlier IFES tracking surveys – Wave I: 13-18 December 2003; 1250 respondents; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave II: 12-15 January 2004; 1250 respondents; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave III/IV: 26 January – 6 February 2004; 2000 respondents; +/- 2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave V/VIII: 15 February – 10 March 2004; 4000 respondents; +/-1.55% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave IX: 21-28 March 2004; 1250 respondents; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave X: 7-14 April 2004; 1250 respondents; +/2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XI/XII: 20 April to 8 May 2004; 2000 respondents; +/-2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XIII: 14 – 9 June 2004; 1250 respondents; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XIV: 17 – 26 June 2004; 2000 respondents; +/- 2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XV: 7 – 14 July 2004; 1250 respondents ; +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level • In this report, any data from the Wave I, Wave II, Waves III/IV, Waves V through VIII surveys, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI/XII, Wave XIII, Wave XIV and Wave XV, is specifically cited in the charts and text. All other data points are from the Wave XVI survey. Regional and other breakdowns reflect data from the Wave XVI survey.
July 31, 2004
Publication
Survey
2004 Tracking Survey Results from Wave XVII (September 2004)
Survey Implementation • This survey was conducted between 2 September and 9 September 2004, using face to face interviews with 2000 respondents in all 32 provinces. • Interviews for this survey were completed before news of the bomb in front of the Australian Embassy on 9 September would have reached any but a very small proportion of respondents. This survey therefore does not take into account any impact the bombing may have had on opinions. • Respondents were selected using multi stage random sampling of eligible voters. The composition of the respondents reflects the rural/urban, men/women and inter-provincial proportions of the Indonesian population. • The margin of error for the national data is +/-2.2% at a 95% level of confidence. • Data comparisons in the text relate to earlier IFES tracking surveys – Wave I: 13-18 December 2003; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave II: 12-15 January 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave III/IV: 26 January – 6 February 2004; 2000 respondents; for national data +/- 2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave V/VIII: 15 February – 10 March 2004; 4000 respondents; for national data +/-1.55% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave IX: 21-28 March 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave X: 7-14 April 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XI/XII: 20 April - 8 May 2004; 2000 respondents; for national data +/-2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XIII: 14 – 9 June 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XIV: 17 – 26 June 2004; 2000 respondents; for national data +/- 2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XV: 7 – 14 July 2004; 1250 respondents ; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level – Wave XVI: 7 – 14 August 2004; 1250 respondents ; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level • In this report, any data from the Wave I, Wave II, Waves III/IV, Waves V through VIII surveys, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI/XII, Wave XIII, Wave XIV Wave XV, and Wave XVI is specifically cited in the charts and text. All other data points are from the Wave XVII survey. Regional and other breakdowns reflect data from the Wave XVII survey.
August 31, 2004
Publication
Survey
2004 Tracking Survey Results from Wave XVIII (October 2004)
Survey Implementation • This survey was conducted between 22 September and 29 September 2004, using face to face interviews with 1250 respondents in all 32 provinces. • Respondents were selected using multi stage random sampling of eligible voters. The composition of the respondents reflects the rural/urban, men/women and inter-provincial proportions of the Indonesian population. • The margin of error for the national data is +/-2.8% at a 95% level of confidence. • Data comparisons in the text relate to earlier IFES tracking surveys –Wave I: 13-18 December 2003; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave II: 12-15 January 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave III/IV: 26 January –6 February 2004; 2000 respondents; for national data +/-2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave V/VIII: 15 February –10 March 2004; 4000 respondents; for national data +/-1.55% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave IX: 21-28 March 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave X: 7-14 April 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/2.8% marginof error at 95% confidence level –Wave XI/XII: 20 April -8 May 2004; 2000 respondents; for national data +/-2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave XIII: 14 –9 June 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave XIV: 17 –26 June 2004; 2000 respondents; for national data +/-2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave XV: 7 –14 July 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave XVI: 7 –14 August 2004; 1250 respondents; for national data +/-2.8% margin of error at 95% confidence level –Wave XVII: 2 –9 September 2004; 2000 respondents; for national data +/-2.2% margin of error at 95% confidence level • In this report, any data from the Wave I, Wave II, Waves III/IV,Waves V through VIII surveys, Wave IX, Wave X, Waves XI/XII, Wave XIII, Wave XIV Wave XV, Wave XVI, and Wave XVII is specifically cited in the charts and text. All other data points are from the Wave XVIII survey. Regional and other breakdowns reflect data from the Wave XVIII survey.
September 30, 2004
Publication
Survey
National Public Opinion Survey in Indonesia (2002)
From 30 March to 22 April, Taylor Nelson Sofres Indonesia, in cooperation with the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), conducted a national public opinion survey in Indonesia. The field work was conducted in 30 provinces, including Aceh and North Maluku. The 3,580 respondents came from rural and urban areas using a random sample method. The objective of the survey was to inform members of the House of Representatives (DPR) and the People's consultative Assembly (MPR) about the perceptions, hopes and attitudes of the Indonesian people. The survey covered a number of current topics such as the performance of the Indonesian government and national leaders, the popularity of political parties, the electoral law reform process and regional autonomy. In general, this study showed an apparent increase in people's awareness of economic and political issues. Compared to the survey conducted in June 2001, a greater proportion of people were able to provide an answer to most of the questions. In other words, there was a significant decrease in "don't know" and "can't say" responses. What has contributed to this shift is difficult to say and one can only speculate. However, it does highlight that compared to 12 months ago more people hold an opinion on the issues raised in the survey.
April 30, 2002
Publication
Report/Paper
Report on Indonesia's 7 June 1999 Parliamentary General Election and Recommendations for Electoral Reform
The June 7 parliamentary election in Indonesia represented a decisive step forward in Indonesia’s transition from authoritarian rule to democratic governance. It resulted, for the first time in Indonesia’s history, in a peaceful transfer of power. However, the election did not represent a significant break from the past in terms of election administration. This election process was marked by administrative inefficiency, non-transparency, and a lack of accountability. While certainly a momentous step in Indonesia’s transition, the credibility of the process hinged on election day itself, which was considered successful due to a lack of violence and to the enthusiasm and patience of the voters. These factors alone do not make a successful election, and serious flaws in the process should be addressed before future elections... TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TERMS AND APPREVIATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. INTRODUCTION II. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND III. THE ELECTION LAW A. The Proportional System B. Elements of a Majority System C. The Structure of the National Election Commission (KPU) D. Political Parties E. Office of the Secretariat F. Election Campaign G. Political Finance H. Voting, Vote Counting, and Tabulation I. Complaint Adjudication IV. ELECTION ADMINISTRATION A. General Principles of Election Administration B. Operational Standards for Election Administration C. Structure of the National Election Commission (KPU) D. Structure of the Election Administration (Management) E. Technology Support F. Planning G. Regulations, Procedures, and Mechanics H. Materials I. Systems and Methods V. RECOMMENDATIONS A. The Legal Framework—The Law on General Elections B. The Election Administration VI. CONCLUSIONS VII. ATTACHMENTS Attachment A: “Money Politics”: Regulation of Political Finance in Indonesia Attachment B: Election Material Distribution Attachment C: Projected and Actual Numbers of Polling Stations Attachment D: List of Forms Used for the 1999 General Election Attachment E: Forms Used for Polling and Counting (Forms C, C1, C3, C4, C5) Attachment F: Polling Station Counting Sheet (Form C2) Attachment G: Statements Related to the Consolidation of Results (Forms D, D1, D2, D3) Attachment H: Forms for Consolidation of Results for DPR, DPRD I, and DPRD II (Forms D41, D42, D43) Attachment I: Law Number 3 of 1999 on General Elections Attachment J: Law Number 2 of 1999 on Political Parties Attachment K: Structure of the Indonesian Election Administration Attachment L: Allocation of DPR Seats to Political Parties Attachment M: 1999 Ballot Sample
January 31, 2000
Publication
Report/Paper
Republic of Indonesia, 1999: Allocation of Seats to Political Parties for the Peoples Representative Assembly (DPR)
On June 7, 1999, elections were held in Indonesia for the 462 elected seats in the national People's Representative Assembly (DPR) and for assemblies at the provincial and district levels. The election law approved in January provided for assembly seats to be allocated to political parties contesting the election according to a proportional representation system.
September 08, 1999